GPU / Chip shortages 2021-22

[Brian Boru]

"Demand will outstrip supply for the rest of the year "

Nvidia warns the great GPU shortage will continue throughout 2021

General industry chip shortages could last into 2022

www.theverge.com

"difficulties of finding a new 30-series GPU will likely continue, possibly into 2022"
"supply should still increase as 2021 progresses"

"TSMC and Intel are also both warning that chip supply issues could last through 2022"

 

[OsaX Nymloth]

*cries in 6 year old PC*

Seriously looks like I will have to bear with my current machine for a while longer. Wanted to build new rig last autumn, but the shortage and prices were already a problem and now it's not getting better.

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

Bitcoin is consolodating around 50K,hopefully it will drop down a lot again, and we'll see a load of second hand cards on the market as it drags down Ethereum with it.

I don't think at this point we will ever see the back of crypto though, so unless Ethereum becomes unprofitable on GPU's for some reason then we'll probably be stuck again in the future when the price bounces back.

Alternatively it could stay around the same price, or go parabolic again and cards will remain impossible to find even if they increase supply x 10. Maybe there's something I dont know and everything will be fine! I hope I'm wrong.

Maybe Intels new cards will give us a break later in the year, if they use their own foundries to make them at least wont have to compete with mobile and cars for manufacturing. Then again if they mine efficiently enough it might not matter how many they can make.

 

[Brian Boru]

if they mine efficiently

I haven't looked into it, but doesn't Nvidia now have a range of cards specifically aimed at mining?

I guess it's not taking the load off gamers' cards yet though

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

They have or they will have, but AFAIK the actual chips used in the mining cards are the same chips used in gaming cards, and also in professional cards.

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

Refreshed GPUs could bring cryptocurrency mining limiter to entire Nvidia RTX 30-series

Maybe a full house for cracking down on cryptocurrency mining.

www.pcgamer.com

I somehow missed this from a few days ago, maybe the situation is a bit more hopeful. As long as they dont find a way around it with custom BIOS or drivers I guess.

 

[DXCHASE]

Going on my like 15 or 16th denial in the newegg shuffle aka overpriced gpu bundles lottery, i sign up for a bundle within 3 seconds of it opening as well. Its a crazy sad state, but if i won a bundle id easily be able to sell the gpu for almost twice the amount its in the bundle for (not that im doing that, js). Crazy times, im glad my 1080ti still holds up.

 

[Alm]

I paid £650 for a 3070. I know most might think it's a waste of money or encouraging scalpers, but I had sold my 1080 waiting for the release of these cards and thought that this situation might occur once I couldn't get one on launch.

 

[Brian Boru]

Cisco says computer chip shortage to last six months:

Cisco says computer chip shortage to last six months

The semiconductor shortage is affecting firms from carmakers to smartphone manufacturers.

www.bbc.com

If you're not familiar with Cisco: "85% of internet traffic using Cisco's systems"

"expansion of capacity will be crucial as advances in technology - including 5G, cloud computing, the internet of things and artificial intelligence - drive a big increase in demand"

"shortages … exacerbated by companies over ordering components to build up inventory, afraid of being caught short again"

Boom & Bust cycles

Chip supply has gone thru cycles for at least the past 30 years. 2019 was probably the worst year for chip makers this century, as demand fell for PCs, phones, cars and other products.

Main problem is chip factories are hugely expensive to bring online, probably over $10 billion these days. So when demand rises, it takes a couple of years before supply can catch up. Then demand plateaus or drops, and those old and new supply players are caught with excess capacity—which means their super-expensive resources are not working full-tilt anymore.

This causes their investors to get nervous, share prices drop, finance becomes more expensive, etc. Some players are forced to shut down factories, smaller ones probably go out of business. Then, guess what… Yeah, demand rises again a few years later, and the whole mess repeats itself.

Times of over-supply are good for us consumers, as prices drop. Things are bad for us now of course in this time of under-supply.

The above boom and bust, plus the massive rise in setup costs, has reduced the number of chip makers from over a hundred in the last quarter of the 20th century to just 3 now—Intel, Samsung, TSMC. Three is too few for such a crucial resource, so hopefully plans for home-based manufacturers in US and EU will come to fruition this decade.

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

Wait, did the BBC forget Global Foundries that used to belong to AMD, or am I missing something?

 

[Brian Boru]

did the BBC forget Global Foundries

They're probably just focused on the big 3, each of which have ~10 times the business of GF.

There are many other smaller but significant fabs which would be bigger than GF—Hynix, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Micron, Texas Instruments etc.

 

[Brian Boru]

Couple of interesting articles with a global overview perspective:

From this January:
Chipmaking is being redesigned. Effects will be far-reaching | The Economist

From today:
How TSMC has mastered the geopolitics of chipmaking | The Economist

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

Yea I'm sure I'm missing a lot I am interested but I obviously don't keep up with it fully.

I just remembered that Global Foundries were one of the ones talked about generally with reference to PC stuff, along with Intel and TSMC over the last few years. I didnt know they were that small relatively, but I guess Flash/DRAM and ARM stuff is in a lot more stuff so it makes sense the others you mentioned would be bigger overall.

 

[Brian Boru]

Global Foundries were one of the ones talked about generally with reference to PC

Oh they are a player, I recall seeing them mentioned over the years too. They're mentioned in one of The Economist articles above.

 

[Colif]

8 months ago I made a new PC: R5 3600x, 2070 Super... 2 months later the 30 series announced. Now in most years I would be kicking myself but as its 8 months later and you still can't find these cards, I am not so sad.

I would still prefer it if it was easier to get new cards, just for peace of mind. I doubt you could find a 2070 Super right now, they stopped making them in anticipation of the 30 series... that didn't work so well.

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

I'm semi tempted to sell my 5700XT, I'd get more then I bought it for.

Oh hey 3070's in stock locally. Only 1150 Euros. They scalp you, so the scalpers don't have to.

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

Theres some hope for a mining crash, but it still won't help manufacturing

Explainer: What Beijing’s new crackdown means for crypto in China

Chinese regulators have tightened restrictions that ban financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrencies, marking a fresh crackdown on digital money.

www.reuters.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-19-may-dogecoin-ethereum-elon-musk-cryptocurrency-080343749.html

 

[Brian Boru]

JayzTwoCents just did a nice video about Nvidia's next plans to cripple mining on consumer cards. They're looking at crippling in 3 ways—via driver, firmware & hardware—to make it more difficult to crack.

Add in the current crypto values crash, and the upshot conclusion for us is there may be a window of opportunity to get cards at MSRP in the coming months.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxMl9Stx8Ig

 

[Brian Boru]

Bad news on the overall chip shortages—could last to 2023

Intel reiterates chip supply shortages could last several years

Intel Corp's (INTC.O) CEO said on Monday it could take several years for a global shortage of semiconductors to be resolved, a problem that has shuttered some auto production lines and is also being felt in other areas, including consumer electronics.

www.reuters.com

 

[randyl]

This is such a frustrating annoying situation. Even when cards do start to trickle back on the shelves, at some vague future date, they'll likely be overpriced and hard to acquire for a while.

My older system died just as the pandemic started ramping up full force. I did get a decent AMD 3700X rig assembled, but settled on a 1660ti, instead of the more expensive 5700XT because I really wanted to wait for the 3070 or next gen AMD. The MSI 1660ti I did get is a pretty decent 1440p card, but it struggles in some obvious areas and does not do DLSS2. The ASUS TUF 3070 I really wanted is so far out of reach it isn't funny and there is no end in sight to this dystopian lunacy.

/rant over.... for now.

 

[Brian Boru]

dystopian lunacy

You must be new to PCs, this is all quite normal Here's how it's played out since I worked for a computer company in the 80s:

When demand for chips is low—or supply high—prices drop. So there's lower profit and no incentive to build new factories.

Demand increases over a few years and suddenly everyone's coining and say "Hey this is great, let's build a new factory."

Lots of factories come online a few years later, so now there's oversupply which causes prices to drop.

Repeat cycle. I've seen a few such cycles, today's is just business as usual. Reassuring, no?

 

[Kaamos_Llama]

I'm not sure there's been as much trouble specifically getting GPU's in my memory. Only time that comes close would be the first time Bitcoin hit 1000 USD per, at that point I sold my HD7950 for slightly more then what I paid for it and bought a GTX 780.

There wasn't a problem getting a GPU it was just the most efficient mining models that were in short supply.

RAM and storage was more expensive after Fukushima for a bit, otherwise I cant think of chip shortages that affected PC's quite so badly as now?

I guess before 2012 I wasn't paying as close attention, but I never went to buy a PC or GPU in the last 25 years and found they were selling 4 year old entry level cards for more than what they cost on release!

 

[Zloth]

Well, iBuyPower says they can build me a system with a 3080 in it sometime in early August. We'll see.

 

[Brian Boru]

If you're interested in a high-level global view of current shortages—not just chips—this 20-minute video is very good:
Why There are Now So Many Shortages (It's Not COVID)

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1JlYZQG3lI

 

[Frindis]

It seems too me that a lot of computer shops have the majority of the graphics cards, but you can't really buy them separately. You have to buy them through some prebuilt PC option, with or without the possibility to change the components. I guess it is a way for them to sit on different cards and squeeze out more money as people are getting more and more desperate in getting their hands on these elusive cards. Will be interesting to see this in comparison to what @Brain Boru linked.